SALT Conference 2015 Panel I: The Other Side Of The Coin

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The SALT Conference is committed to facilitating balanced discussions and debates on macro-economic trends, geo-political events and investment opportunities within the context of a dynamic global economy. With over 1,800 thought leaders, public policy officials, business professionals, and investors from over 42 countries and 6 continents, the SALT Conference provides an unmatched opportunity for attendees from around the world to connect with global leaders and network with industry peers.

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Panel 1:  The Other Side of the Coin: A Global Macro Forecast

Steve Forbes (Moderator)

Chairman & Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media

Mohamed El-Erian

Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council; Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz; Chief Executive Officer & Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO (2007 – 2014)

Robert Nardelli

Founder & Chief Executive Officer, XLR-8 LLC

Prime Minister George Papandreou

Prime Minister of Greece (2009-2011)

Peter Schiff

Chief Executive Officer & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital

Gene Sperling

Director, National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy (2011-2014 and 1997-2001); Senior Counselor to Secretary of Treasury (2009-2011); Consultant, NBC’s Award-Winning West Wing

Notes from SALT Conference 2015 Panel I: The Other Side of the Coin: A Global Macro Forecast

Talking about unemployment. Forbes ripping current govt and govt spending.

The labor market was scarred, with a V recovery.

Demographics are causing a shift in the labor markets

People need confidence and need to know the govt will take care of the fiscal issues

Peter Schiff

The Fed WILL NOT raise rates.  Fed will launch QE4. They have too.  If the Fed raises rates it will force us into

A huge financial crisis

Their is NO recover

Labor force participation is at an all time low – younger people staying in school

Now Sperling and Schiff going back and forth debating labor markets

Schiff says people have to go to college to get a job at McDonalds now.

Schiff says he saw crisis coming in 2007 and Sperling missed it

Mohamed El-Erian

We have over relied on the pain pills the Fed gave the economy in 2008/2009

The economic model is no longer holding together bc central banks are on different paths

Greece will have an accident

We have this illusion of liquidity — it is a delusion!  He is very worried about liquidity

We have structurally changed the economic framework — broker dealers have shrunk and the end users

Are getting bigger and bigger

There is no appetite to take on systematic risk

Focus on liquidity

He worries about existing business that are fearful and hoarding cash

How to solve- corp tax reform- clean up the tax system which are anti growth

Don’t underestimate the infrastructure spending

Labor market reform

We have a NOTION that governments are in control

Are we living in a new world? where governments actually are no longer in control and things will happen

50% chance of small defaults in Greece plus IOU’s — Greece won’t be able to control its destiny

Peter Schiff

Small businesses need consumers to save

The Fed is creating a dis incentive to save

Robert Nardelli

The world has changed

The geopolitical risk has everyone frozen

Technology is driving a TON of productivity

Seeing mega acquisitions because companies are flush with cash

Getting capital from family offices and high net worth individuals, not where they typically would find

Growth capital for start ups and new technology companies

Short-termism – he has lived with it for 40 years. more businesses SHOULD NOT give guidance/forecast

Far too many people are investing with a 90 day time horizon, which is far too short

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