Pessimism Up…

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valueplays
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“Davidson” submits:

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See 2017 Hedge Fund Letters.

The majority of investors take their investment guidance from price trends and the recent shift sideways with volatility in the FANG stocks has created higher pessimism. Today’s employment report, -37,000 in the Household Survey Employment, remains solidly in an up trend. Light Weight Vehicle Sales for March of 17.4mil SAAR(Seasonally Adj Annual Rate) is typical at this point in an expanding economic cycle. 

“One Reason for Optimism: Bearish Investors” https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-reason-for-optimism-bearish-investors-1523006335

Amid concerns about trade and tech stocks, investors are at their most pessimistic in months—an encouraging sign for some

FANG stocks

The Investment Thesis:

While recent market volatility, especially with FANG issues, has caused many to become pessimistic, the underlying economic indicators remain solidly in up trends. Equity markets should price higher as additional economic reports support a positive outlook.

Markets are composites. FANG issue performance in this cycle is no different than previous cycles in which a few issues dominate the news and index performance. In the process, many issues with excellent long-term performances receive little media focus. It appears that the weakness in FANG issues has resulted in some recognition of some of these issues as they suddenly outperform.

Investors must always be selective

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

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