Ray Dalio – The Big Picture

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Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:

[dalio]

1. The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
2. There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,
3. Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and
4. Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.

So while we have no near-term economic worries for the economy as a whole, we worry about what these conflicts will become like when the economy has its next downturn.

The next few...