Oil: Today's Upside Sowing The Seeds Of Tomorrow's New Lows

The 2-year old aggressive market-share price war by the Saudis led the necessity to squeeze costs for alternative energy producers around the world. Critically, US shale frackers managed to notably decrease breakeven costs per barrel; for some shale types down to $29 from $59 in 2014, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. Nietzsche said it eloquently: “That which does not kill you, makes you stronger.” Indeed.

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Oil at above 50$ is set to drive a supply response from marginal US producers, not just the most virtuous ones. 2020 oil production can now be hedged at almost 60$ on forwards, leaving not much in the...