Depressions are Highly Inflationary: Evidence from the Federal Reserve

FROM DEFLATION PUSH……TO INFLATION SHOVE

For the third time since 2008, financial markets are pricing in a deflationary rather than inflationary future. The reasons for this are understandable. There is now strong evidence that global economic activity is slowing. The euro-area banking and sovereign debt crisis is worsening. The US is heading towards a so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ in 2013, implying a recession. And all this is occurring without global GDP having surpassed its pre-2008 peak. Notwithstanding multiple rounds of massive, Keynesian-inspired, theoretically inflationary stimulus, deflationary pressures are building anew. Does this imply that...