China: A Transition Well Underway – Matthews Asia

China: A Transition Well Underway by Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia

China’s first half macroeconomic data supports our view that the country is in the midst of a successful transition from a high-speed, heavy industry-based economy to a consumer and services-based economy, which, while decelerating, will remain the most important driver of global growth. We believe the challenges of continuing this transition will result in gradually slower growth rates and increased volatility, but the risks of a hard landing remain very low.

Winners and Losers in the Transition

To understand the trajectory of the Chinese economy, it is important to recognize that this economic transition is creating winners and losers. The services and consumption (tertiary) part of the economy, for example, remains...