Pilotless planes will routinely fly passengers by 2030.
Machine intelligence will have passed the “Turing Test” by 2029.
[buffett]
These are two examples of Long Bets sited in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter to shareholders.
Of course, the bet that received the most attention was the one that Mr. Buffett placed himself. In 2005, Warren wagered $1,000,000 that no investment pro could select a set of hedge funds that would outperform an S&P index fund over ten years.
Ted Seides, co-manager of Protege Partners, stepped up to the challenge in 2008. And with one year left on the clock, his odds look pretty grim.
Through nine years, the compounded annual increase for the Vanguard S&P Index Fund was 7.1%. Mr. Seides’ five picks fell far short of this benchmark, gaining an...
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