Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Behavioral Finance and the CIA

Taken Oct. & Nov. 2012 by Kyle Mowery, Founder of GrizzlyRock Capital, notes from The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer, Jr.

Chapter 1: “Thinking About Thinking”

• Thinking analytically is a skill learned via doing (page 2)
• Some of the CIA’s best analysts leaned through failures early in their careers (page 2)
• The concept of bounded rationality means that we create simplified mental models, which are inherently more simple than reality (page 3)
• “Intelligence analysts must understand themselves before they can understand others.” (page 4)
• Problems can occur in individuals working alone, in small groups, and large organization. Heuer is focusing on individuals as these issues “are probably the most insidious.” (page 6)

“Perception: Why Can’t We...