Perpetual Beta

“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta – the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.” – Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Learning from failure requires two things. One – we must expect to fail. Two – we must recognize when we fail. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and Gardner suggest that vague terms like “probably” and “likely” make it difficult to access forecasts. Time lag is another learning barrier. Our memory of our own judgment is highly selective and often wrong. Hindsight bias is the cardinal sin.

“Ultimately, it’s not the crunching power that counts. It’s how you...