Every now and then you come across a chart that makes you do a double take, and I think this is one of those. It shows the “Economic Policy Uncertainty Index” for China, and in case you need a hint – the indicator shows a spike in policy uncertainty in China. I actually think this makes a lot of sense given what’s going on in China, and I talked about it in a recent presentation on the China Macro Outlook. Basically you have a combination of softer macroeconomic data (topping out in trade growth, property price growth rolling over, and the continued bite of previous policy tightening), along with the trade war issue, and the prospects of policy changes (fiscal and monetary stimulus may need to be stepped up). But as scary as it looks, in my view – as the macroeconomic outlook continues to soften, the odds of positive policy surprise from China rises. Question is how bad do things need to get first…
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Article by Callum Thomas, Top Down Charts
