Whitney Tilson, a well-known investor and publisher of financial newsletters, presented several ideas at the Value Investing Seminar in Italy on July 4th, 2025. He discussed some stock picks, his recent foray into New York City politics and reflections on his past investment calls.
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2025 Value Investing Seminar - Whitney Tilson
Tilson began with a brief recap of his political endeavors, having recently run for Mayor of New York City, finishing seventh out of eleven candidates with 1% of the vote in the Democratic primary. He stated his current focus is on dissuading New Yorkers from electing a "radical socialist". He then reviewed his investment calls from the previous year's seminar.
His macro calls - small cap stocks at a quarter-century low, value stocks relative to growth, and international stocks relative to US - had generally underperformed, with these categories only matching the broader market. In energy, which he believes is in a "secular not a cyclical bull market," his specific pick OXY had been a disappointment.
However, his picks in nuclear energy had performed well: BWX Technologies was up 47% and Cameco, the largest publicly traded uranium producer, was up 42%. His main stock pick from last year (discussed later in this post), had doubled and he believed it still had significant upside, albeit speculatively. Looking back three years, he celebrated prior successes with Meta (up 300%) and Netflix (up 600%).
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Investment Philosophy: Moonshots
Tilson introduced his concept of "moonshot" investing, focusing on stocks that can rise by five to ten times in a short period. These are typically market-leading companies in "sexy and exciting sectors" that attract media and retail investor attention. He clarified that he is not referring to established mega-cap companies like Microsoft or Nvidia, but rather "smaller emerging companies in some exciting new area that captures people's imagination". He cited examples like early Tesla with electric cars, Apple with the iPhone launch, and Netflix with streaming video.
He also noted that even if a "moonshot" doesn't perform well long-term, it can still generate substantial profits if timed correctly, as demonstrated by iRobot and Virgin Galactic, which he profited from despite their eventual declines.
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