Echoes Of 1999: The Tech Bubble And The "Asian Flu"

Echoes Of 1999: The Tech Bubble And The “Asian Flu” by Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates

Key Points

1. Conditions now parallel the late 1990s as inflation expectations plunge, emerging market currencies tumble, relative valuations of emerging markets versus U.S. stocks and bonds hit extremes, and the growth-stock bull market roars ahead while value stocks lag behind.
2. The extreme parallels observed in both December 1998 and today are the drivers of future outperformance for the most hated asset classes as well as the drivers of disappointing return prospects for the most popular and comfortable markets.
3. In the 5 and 10 years following December 1998, assets other than U.S. and developed-market equities and U.S. notes and bonds outperformed 60/40 by an annualized 8.8% and...
   

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