The Overreaction Hypothesis – Anatomy & How To Exploit It

The Overreaction Hypothesis - Anatomy & How To Exploit It by Tom Macpherson, Dorfman Value Investments

In 1863 during the battle of Gettysburg, Union general Daniel Sickles decided to move his troops far in advance of the line demarcated by his superiors. As the troops moved out with flags flying and bands playing, another Union officer – Winfield Scott Hancock – watched the movement with great consternation. One of his staff officers commented that Sickles’ was disobeying orders. General Hancock looked through his binoculars, sighed, and said “they’ll come tumbling back soon enough.” And indeed they did. Hit with an enormous wave of Confederate soldiers, Sickles and his men suffered enormous losses (Sickles even losing a leg) almost...