Throwing The Kitchen Sink At A Conservative Thesis

Almost 10 years into an economic recovery, most of what is going on seems extremely pro-cyclical, meaning we are borrowing from our future to make the present look better. Many of these policies and trends cannot continue indefinitely, and when they stop, the world we are left with will look very different.

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In early February the markets calm demeanor changed immediately and radically. The VIX index, which measures expected volatility, had its largest one-day gain ever. The Dow and S&P 500 all of sudden started gyrating, reminiscent of the days of the financial crisis. One of the obviously “turkey” investments of this cycle finally reached its “Thanksgiving” when short volatility funs (who had averaged returns north of 40% a year...