Record Low Bond Volatility Heading Into Rate Hikes

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), known as the “central bank of central banks,” has been outdoing itself lately. Not only did it discover $14 trillion in debt hidden in “footnotes,” but in its recent report titled “Strong outlook with low inflation spurs risk-taking,” “pretty much summarized (the) disinflation boom theme,” a Jefferies report noted. It all points to an economic environment never before witnessed, as low bond market volatility is a market feature heading into a rate hike cycle. But that headline of “low volatility” might not actually be the case when the skew spreads are considered.

[dalio]

The traditional path of bond market volatility is for it...