Watch out for historical bias
Some might say that Greenrock Research’s third quarter 2017 (yes the company calls it Q3, not Q2) Investor Insights newsletter (as reviewed by ValueWalk) is pessimistic. More experienced investors might say that the note strikes an appropriately cautious tone for the current environment. Whichever camp you fall into, the central message of the newsletter should not be ignored: Investing is tough.
The note begins with a reference to Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, Think Twice in which he argues that it is human nature to simplify problems, preventing us from making sound judgments when confronted with complex problems. Investing is a complex problem, and trying to streamline the process could be the biggest mistake investors make.
[klarman]
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