In his 29 years of investing, former Tudor Investment Corp. manager Brett Gillespie says he “can’t recall a more exciting outlook for macro investing,” according to a recent letter to investors. With the US Federal Reserve withdrawing interest rate accommodation at a time when a robust fiscal stimulus is on the table, it helps to understand the economic situation by recognizing that surprise is a component of the Trump administration’s playbook. And shock can be a challenge to model. Under “normalized” circumstances, an economic recovery from a balance sheet recession might be expected to take seven years. Market cycles have…
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