T-Bill/10 Year Treasury Rate Spread Widens To 0.38%

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Updated on

“Davidson” submits:

Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

As you can see, one always needs to interpret what any data actually is telling us. Being locked in to any single indicator or pattern requires confirmation in other indicators. More than this, one also needs to be aware of the many themes playing out which result in capital flows globally. Most analysts know no more than what they have been taught which is based on a century of misperception and mathematical models.

Everyday, I have learned to sit back and reassess everything to make sure I am not missing a developing trend, a capital flow, which is new and influential that was not apparent yesterday. Taking the position that markets cannot repeat because conditions never repeat as society shifts ever forward with innovation and technological discovery is the only way to view markets. It became obvious a decade ago that capital flows from China, Russia, So America and etc were influencing accepted returns on real estate and 10yr Treasuries which everyone took as higher levels of perceived risk. Some of this may be ending now with Trump’s tariff initiatives. I ignored the sell signal the T-Bill/10yr Treas rate spread gave me because I saw the factors were not the same as had been historically.

This chart is updated as of yesterday’s close.

Treasury Rate Spread

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.