Michael Mauboussin – Clean Tech Gaining From Wright’s Law

You have probably heard of Moore’s law, which predicts computing power to double every two years, decreasing the cost of computers too. But do you know Wright’s law?

Enunciated by Theodore Paul Wright, who was part of an engineering team that built the world’s first airplane, Wright’s law states: For each one percent increase in cumulative production of a technology, there is a fixed percent decrease in cost. In tests on 62 different technologies, Wright’s law predicted the most accurate forecasts of technological progress, with Moore’s law close behind.

The impact of Wright’s law

Wright’s law has a profound impact on new energy technology, according to Jessika Trancik, an energy researcher at...