“Davidson” submits:
Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
On average employment trend continues higher. What remains a sticking point is 2.1mil out of work due to continued issues from COVID. There is an undetermined multiplier effect with out of work individuals. More individuals employed generates GDP increases which require additional individuals employed. Usually this is quoted as greater than 1:1 often greater than 2:1. This means that 2.1mil unemployed could translate close to the 5.7mil deemed in this report as out of work who want to work. The JobOpenings over 11mil reflect in part a mismatch in opportunities in one state with desire to work statistics coming from other state. Too often it is assumed simply that job availability with unemployed is a simple fix. It is not. Note that what appears to be a stall in the Household Survey is not present in the Establishment data. This could represent people who reported as self-employed under the former now reentering the workforces of those companies representing the latter. The Household Survey is the only report that includes estimates of the self-employed. That temporary help remains stable is a good signal of continued future employment gains. “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.“…
“In June, 2.1 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because theiremployer closed or lost business due to the pandemic–that is, they did not work atall or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due tothe pandemic. This measure is up from 1.8 million in the previous month.”
