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BAML: Don't Expect Trump Tax Cuts To Impact Markets Immediately

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Mark Melin
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As Congressional Republicans are preparing an “extravaganza” of Trump tax cuts, a pair of Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists say that “cutting taxes could be taxing” as they warn markets might be getting ahead of their skies on fiscal stimulus. Some analysts have estimated Trump tax cuts could add $180 billion to the S&P 500.

Trump tax cuts baml-tax-relief-shrinking-output

Trump tax cuts are not likely to happen quickly

Markets appear to be riding high on a “Trumped rally,” expectant that Trump tax cuts and fiscal stimulus will spread gifts to market participants and propel an already highly valued market in the late stages of an economic boom to even higher heights.

At some...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.