The +139K ADP Jobs Equates To About +150K BLS

The ADP jobs number came in at +139K, an acceleration from the 127K of the prior month.

On a year over year basis, the ADP jobs figure represents an increase of 1.9% over February 2013.

ADP jobs relation with BLS job

What do today’s ADP jobs figures mean for Friday’s huge BLS’ job report?

Here’s how the relationship looks.

The scatterplot shows that the two surveys are closely related, with only a slight bent rightward from a perfect linear correlation.

Based upon the relationship, what would today’s ADP +139K number predict for Friday’s BLS job number?

145K.

Friday’s job number falls below expectations

The +145K is in contrast...