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Is Lebanon Headed For A Second Civil War?

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Mark Melin
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Perhaps the passive-aggressive approach to the Middle-East crisis is for the Saudis to first strike at Lebanon, considered a satellite state of Iran, rather than drop the gloves with the budding nuclear power itself. As the Saudis appear to have “declared war” on Lebanon, according to one Hezbollah leader in the region, does the path to a Saudi Iranian War start with its satellite states? Some of the lessons of Lebanon can be learned through history, says a Nomura report, which cites knee-jerk reactions as paving the way for a change in financial outcomes in the region. The trick for analysts is to watch for the point tensions spill over into developed world equity markets.

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.