Retail Sales, Personal Income And Recessions

valueplays

Published onJanuary 2, 2019

Updated on January 2, 2019

“Davidson” submits:

Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

There are several indicators which provide an early indication of economic peaks. None of them are signaling a peak is at hand. Their history suggests the current market pessimism is a significant ‘Head-Fake’ by those who 1) believe that price trends reveal all that is necessary for predicting economic trends and 2) market cycles have specific timeframes and a top is due. What is missed in the shallow price-trend approach is that Real Retail Sales and Personal Income have to first rollover before we see economic slowing which is then followed by a market top, not the other way around.

The data for Real Retail Sales and Personal Income make it certain that no signs of a rollover is in process. Looks like we should have a good 2019 economically with market prices to follow.

Happy New Year!

valueplays

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

Retail Sales, Personal Income And Recessions

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