Reserve Bank of India Could Cut 50bp In Early 2016: BAML

Keeping in view the Fed and monsoon uncertainties, the Reserve Bank of India to hold interest rates the same this year and cut 50bp from them early in 2016, suggest analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Abhishek Gupta and Indranil Sen Gupta point out in their June 11 research note entitled "India in Focus" that the impact of the recent heavy rains on Reserve Bank of India policy is waning.

Progress of monsoon is behind schedule in India

Tracking India’s monsoon closely, the analysts note that rains have been normal from June 1-9. As highlighted by ValueWalk, the Indian Met office has forecast a deficient monsoon season at 88% of normal rains this year:

However, the BAML analysts point out that a...