Recession Unlikely According To BoA, while MKM Sees 1937 Parallels

At first glance, recent data from the industrial and transport sectors indicates that the US is heading towards a recession. However, while some figures indicate that a recession could be just around the corner, the usual preconditions are not in place, and the most effective indicators are signalling a low risk of recession according to a research note issued by Bank of America's US economic research team to clients this week.

Industrial production contracted in three out of four quarters in 2015, after posting a solid 3.7% gain in 2014. What's more, industrial production, payrolls and factory hours all slowed in three out of four quarters last year, and during the fourth quarter, the ISM manufacturing index fell to 49 -- a reading...