OECD Data Signaled Bond Outperformance: Gave

The recent bond rally caught most investors, even institutional investors with plenty of resources at their disposal, by surprise and ate into fund managers’ May performance, but most are still counting on equity markets to outperform bonds for the rest of the year, crediting the bond rally to everything from trouble in Ukraine to falling US deficits. But Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) leading indicators that correlate with bond outperformance have been sending signals since January, says Gavekal co-founder Charles Gave, and they haven’t changed direction yet.

“The strong rally on long dated bonds has left many people scratching their heads,” writes Gave in a recent Evergreen Gavekal update. “After all, it is not every year that one...