India’s Food Inflation Likely To Decelerate: Morgan Stanley

Aided by sustained moderation in rural wage growth and continued decline in global food prices, food inflation in India will likely be on a decelerating path, notes Morgan Stanley.

Upasana Chachra and team at Morgan Stanley in their July 6, 2015 research note on Indian Economics note that rainfall in July will be key, as 64% of full-year summer crop sowing is typically completed by July-end.

India to witness above-normal trend in rainfall

Monsoon season is one of the key driving forces behind the Indian economy, with agriculture constituting nearly 17.6% of India’s GDP. The Morgan Stanley analysts note the monsoon season is currently tracking at 0% deviation from normal over the June 1 – July 5 period on a season-to-date basis,...