Identifying The Most Fragile OECD Economies

Even though most of the West is recovering, there are still plenty of bumps in the road ahead and there’s no reason to expect developed markets to rise and fall together. But there are a few key indicators that determine how well countries will be able to respond to negative shocks, says Natixis analyst Patrick Artus. Using those, he’s identified the most fragile OECD countries to be wary of.

OECD economic policies

“We believe that fragility increases with the private-sector debt ratio, banks’ debt leverage, the inability to use counter cyclical economic policies, the external deficit and external debt,” says Artus. Taken together, these factors constrain governments’ ability to act and magnify the impact of...