London, 25 September: New analysis from market sentiment provider Permutable reveals that global macro sentiment is fracturing along regional lines, with the United States turning sharply optimistic following the Federal Reserve’s policy shift, Europe remaining weighed down by political risk, and gold surging to new record highs as the universal hedge.
The findings, based on Permutable’s Trading Co-Pilot and Regional Macro Indices, shows that what might appear as disconnected headlines - dovish monetary policy in the US, protests and political strains across Europe, and accelerating flows into gold - are in fact quantifiable sentiment signals.
Overview:
- United States: The Fed’s 25 bp cut to 4.00-4.25%, its first since 2024, reignited risk appetite. The US dollar index fell to a three-year low (96.25), equities hit record highs, and two-year Treasury yields slipped below 4.1%. Permutable’s models detected the dovish sentiment build-up weeks before the meeting, confirming a structural shift into a risk-on regime.
- Europe: Despite fundamentals showing only modest deterioration, political shocks - from wealth tax proposals in France to protests in Germany, Italy and the UK - have entrenched a bearish sentiment regime. Permutable’s Political Tension Indices highlighted persistent fragility, with France emerging as the epicentre of volatility.
- Gold: The standout performer, climbing to $3,780/oz (+12% month-to-date, +41% YTD). Permutable’s cross-regional sentiment analysis confirmed gold’s role as the universal hedge, with consistently positive signals across the US, Europe and emerging markets.
Wilson Chan, CEO, Permutable, said: “Our latest findings show that markets are not converging around a single narrative - they are splitting. The US is pricing in easier policy and stronger risk appetite, while Europe is trapped in a cycle of political shocks. Gold is bridging that divide, absorbing flows from both regions. What looks like noise is in fact a map of opportunities when you quantify sentiment.”
Jack Watson, Analyst, Permutable, added: “The data is clear: sentiment fractures precede market moves. By monitoring these divergences in real time, we see relative-value trades emerge long before traditional data catches up.”
Implications for global macro strategy
- US: Risk-on leadership, anchored by dovish policy and resilient corporate earnings.
- Europe: Relative weakness, with only tactical rallies likely; structural fragility persists.
- Gold: Strength as a cross-regional hedge; demand supported by both dollar weakness and European political instability.
How the analysis was conducted
- Trading Co-Pilot processed 120,000+ multilingual news sources and market commentaries in real time, flagging the dovish US monetary narrative before the Fed cut.
- Regional Macro Indices tracked cross-country divergences, confirming positive US divergence against entrenched European political drag.
- Political Tension Indices identified persistent volatility clusters in France, Germany, and Italy, validating the bearish skew.
About Permutable
Permutable is a London-based data intelligence company providing institutional investors with real-time sentiment, geopolitical, and macroeconomic analytics. Using advanced natural language processing and machine learning, Permutable transforms global news and unstructured data into actionable trading signals. Flagship products include the Trading Co-Pilot, Regional Macro Indices, and the Political Tension & War Indices.
