This is an Amazing Expansion and Perhaps the Most Important GDP Figure in Years is Due Out Thursday

On Thursday at 8:30 a.m., perhaps one of the most important GDP figure in a long time will be released - the advanced estimate of second quarter GDP growth (or decline).

The market expects annualized Q/Q growth of 2.3%, a healthy expansion from the -0.2% in the first quarter.

Question - What will the Federal Reserve do, and how will markets respond, if second quarter GDP comes in negative, meaning an informal recession occurred in the first of 2015 (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth)?

(The recession would be informal because the entity responsible for making the unofficial formal recession call is the National Bureau of Economic Research. The...