Is GDP Above or Below Trend?

There's lots of debate out there right now claiming that the expansion can last another six or seven years because GDP is so far below trend.

Is it?

Real GDP per Person with Exponential Trend

Here's a look at GDP per person in the U.S. (on an inflation-adjusted basis).

The brown lines represent non-recession years.

The blue lines represent recession years.

The dotted line is one potential method of calculating a trend.  The method behind the dotted line is that of an exponential trend, meaning the assumption behind this is that real GDP per person should continue growing exponentially as it generally did in the past.

As shown, if one presumes an exponential trend, then GDP per person is well below trend.  Taking the argument further,...