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The Impossible Happens Before Breakfast: Analyst Attempts To Model "Financially Repressed" Markets

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Mark Melin
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There is a massive move underway in markets, GMO’s resident contrarian James Montier noted in a white paper titled “Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast.” Like an Alice in Wonderland journey, James Montier  goes down rabbit holes of " financial repression " of free market thought as he attempts a rare feat in the history of algorithmic analysis: Modeling an assumed free market to its correlation impact on a centrally-influenced market featuring negative interest rates. Modeling the point at which a "repressed" market impacts a free market is a feat rarely accomplished in public with a high degree of difficulty. The author's resultant "two key assumptions, neither of which (he finds) very palatable," question the linkage between interest rates and stocks...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.