When Will The Federal Reserve Learn That There's A New Normal?

Yesterday afternoon the Federal Reserve released minutes from its March 18-19 meeting.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Fed minutes focused attention towards the "six-month" comment made by chairwoman Janet Yellen.

The six-month comment refers to the inference the market as a whole made last month - based upon Yellen's comments - that the Federal Reserve may increase the federal funds target rate six months after the end of QE III.

Quantitative easing - better known as QE III - is on track to be phased-out in the August/September time frame.  Adding six months from fall 2014 puts the initial federal funds rate increase happening in February/March 2015.

Federal Reserve officials sound dovish

The market took this as hawkish.  Thus, an unsurprising amount of effort...