The Fed Is Either Too Late Or Too Early, But Certainly Not Just Right

If market economists have the Fed right, in about 60 days from now Janet Yellen, chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, will announce the first Federal Reserve rate hike in about 9 years.

With the first rate hike pending, an obvious question is - Does the Fed have the timing right?

If you're looking at year-over-year growth in Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, the answer is a clear no.

Here's a look.

Retail Sales vs Fed tightening cycles

The following graphic is a look at year-over-year growth in Retail Sales overlaid with the Federal Funds target interest rate.

Fascinatingly, all four of the previous four Fed tightening cycles occurred when Retail Sales were either accelerating or about flat.

This is interesting because Retail...