EM Turmoil And Subsequent S&P 500 Returns: A Look At History

“EM turmoil,”  “Fragile Five,” “current account deficits,”  “global imbalances,” are some of the terms that have become more commonplace in our daily lexicon during the past few days of the global collapse in equities.

More ominously, emerging market equities and US equities, which usually move up or down in lock-step (at least they did so in 20 of the past 25 years), diverged in 2013 – EM equities were down whereas the S&P500 was off to the races.

That may have been a sign, because as of late January, EM equities appear to have been black-listed by investors and have been in a kind of free fall. This had a follow-through effect on developed...