Does YTD Gold Predict Year-End Equities?

So far this year gold has performed quite well, with the London PM price up about 10% YTD (blue line).  The 2014 YTD return is the second best since 1984, lagging only 2008.

The return of gold

Question: is the return of gold early in a year an indication of how well equities will do for the reminder of the year?

Before answering the question, here’s what the Dow Jones Industrial Average has done by year since 1984 through March 7^th.

The chart shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off to a weak start by historical standards,...