The global economic cycle is starting to turn, but political shocks risk undermining the whole recovery according to Credit Suisse’s Global Strategy research team lead by James Sweeney.
According to the team’s Global Cycle Notes research document, sent out to clients at the end of last week euphoric credit markets, a stabilising mining sector and a recovery in tradable goods are three key factors that have raised hopes of a world economy reaching exit velocity in the first half of this year. However, while these factors hint at a recovery, deep political change in Europe and the US could undermine the recovery. There is also the wildcard of China to consider. It is the view of Credit Suisse’s Global Strategy...

