The French election, held this Sunday, is tightening to within the statistical margin of error, a Deutsche Bank report notes. What could be the biggest risk to the market, an anti-EU candidate being elected, might happen in the first round, with the second round, likely to be won by pro-EU forces – should they make it into the second round. The general election April 23 will result in a run-off May 7 if no single candidate captures over 50% of the vote.

The fear of markets is a French election match-up between anti-EU candidates Le Pen and Malenchon
The fear of markets, the black swan, is that radical candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon gets into...

