Morgan Stanley: Credit Risks Are Rising

The credit cycle has turned, and fundamental risks are material, that’s according to Morgan Stanley’s July 1 report on the credit sector.

Back in October 2015, Morgan Stanley published a detailed research report on the state of the US credit market and credit cycle. At the time the bank came to the conclusion that credit risks were increasing, and investors should take a cautious view of the high-yield sector and wider financial markets in general.

HY credit quality has never been worse

Ten months on and according to Morgan Stanley’s research, conditions in the US credit markets have only deteriorated. The high-yield bond default rate has increased to 6.61% on par with the level two years before defaults peaked...