The latest media attention around the NYSE margin debt reaching a new high clearly shows that investor sentiment is extremely bullish.
Rise in margin debt
The chart below (courtesy of www.elliottwave.com) shows the evolution of margin debt over the years.
A market fueled by margin debt becomes vulnerable because a small correction could trigger a much larger slide as panicked investors lack the wherewithal to wait it out and allow the market to resume its trend.
Euphoria model
A research note by Citi analysts Tobias M Levkovich, Lorraine M Schmitt and Christina Wood draws attention to their Panic/Euphoria Model, that has been showing euphoric readings for six weeks now.
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