Who Is Leading The Bond Rally? The usual Suspects, Of Course

When the Ten Year US Treasury Note reversed course in March from near 2.62%, dropping to near 2.14% on June 6, analysts observed this with keen interest. The bond market decoupled from the stock market, the question of who was right – bond or stock market participants? More recently, when the yield dropped from near 2.42% on May 9, shedding 20 basis points, what was the cause? Sharp price adjustments over a short period of time, on a fundamental level, can indicate an un-even informational tilt to the market, where something changed investor minds. What was the mechanics? JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou looks at the interest rate price movement with a technical eye towards causation in a June 9...