System-wide U.S. credit card debt growth will decline moderately, while auto loans growth will fall markedly over the next two years, believe BMO Capital Markets analysts. James Fortheringham and Aman Gherger forecast benign credit trends driven by falling unemployment in their April 12 research note titled “Stop Fretting About Credit Card and Auto Lending.”
Improving credit quality for credit card and auto loans
Fortheringham and his colleague say that the seemingly intensifying investor concerns regarding credit cards and auto loans are unwarranted. They applied macroeconomic regression models to forecast system-wide credit quality and growth for U.S. credit cards and auto loans. Their analysis suggests that credit card loan net charge-off (NCO) rates will continue to improve, albeit only slightly, over the next two years, driven...
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