Is the American Labor Market Peaking Now?

It’s been a good past year for the American labor market.

Since March 2014, month-over-month employment growth has been above 200K every month except two.

The strength poses the question - Is the American labor market peaking?

Here are two arguments that suggest that it might be peaking.

A Peaking American Labor Market?

Year-over-Year Employment Growth

The first is a look at the year-over-year growth in employment.

The chart labels the previous business cycle peaks.

In 1973, employment growth peaked at 4.63%. In 1978, 5.43%.

In 1981, 1.96%. In 1984, 5.44%. In 1988, 3.28%.

In 1995, 3.47%. In 2000, 2.55%. In 2006, 2.16%.

The current expansion’s peak has been 2.34%, which occurred in February 2015.

Since February 2015, employment...