Crescat Capital's commentary for the month ended September 30, 2025, titled, “An Opportunity To Buy The Pullback In The Metals Complex.”
Crescat’s year-to-date performance through September across all our funds reflects the strength of our investment themes and the conviction behind them.
Rankings are versus all 1,985 hedge funds in the Preqin database and YTD performance updated through September 2025 as of 10/28/2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including risk of loss. *See additional disclosures below.
We believe the opportunity ahead of us remains substantial, with the current environment favoring our two largest themes firmwide:
- Activist Precious and Critical Metals Mining – A strategy we express on the long side across all five Crescat funds via a portfolio of undervalued, high-growth, predominantly exploration-and-development-stage miners.
- The US Stock Market Historic Valuation Bubble – A Black Swan-style put option strategy, which we are currently expressing in our Global Macro, Long/Short, and Institutional Macro funds, alongside the long metals’ exposure. We believe broad retail investor mania over artificial intelligence, mega-cap tech, and cryptocurrencies poses extraordinary risk to investors. Now, more than ever, we think it is a prudent time to employ this put option strategy.
Our activist metals strategy has been the primary driver of performance across all Crescat funds year-to-date. For those who have been watching from the sidelines and missing out, the sharp but likely temporary pullback in October month-to-date across the metals complex is creating what we think is an attractive setup for new investors looking to get exposure to Crescat’s highly differentiated funds for the current monthly investment window ending October 31. We continue to view turbulence as an opportunity rather than a threat to the core themes across our funds.
Crescat Precious Metals and Institutional Commodity Funds
Crescat’s in-depth bottom-up valuation model, combined with our macroeconomic analysis, gives us high conviction that it is still early in a long and powerful multi-year cycle for precious and critical metals miners.
The Crescat Precious Metals and Institutional Commodity Funds are fully dedicated to capitalizing on this theme. Our activist metals strategy has been focused on helping to create some of the largest and most commercially viable gold, silver, and copper discoveries worldwide. We believe we have built an expertly crafted, deeply undervalued, high-growth portfolio tailored for the current macro environment.
In more than five years since its inception in August 2020 through September 30, 2025, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund has significantly outperformed all the major mining and metals benchmarks, as we show in the chart below. It is also the second-best-performing sector-focused hedge fund among all 131 such funds across all sectors in the Preqin database over that time frame.
*See important disclosures below. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including risk of loss.
Crescat’s Macro and Long-Short Funds
In our Global Macro, Institutional Macro, and Long Short funds, we are also strategically positioned on the short side for a megacap-led market meltdown caused by overcrowding, excessive leverage, and record-high valuations. Aggressive insider selling and market divergences are signaling a potential near-term S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 market top. We encourage prospective investors in our macro and long-short funds to consider these funds’ downside capture ratios, a measure of performance in down markets, which are among the top in the hedge fund industry.
High Absolute Return and Negative Downside Capture
Crescat Global Macro Fund will have a 20-year track record at the end of this year. This fund has both the highest absolute return and top downside capture ratio among all discretionary global macro funds in the eVestment database since its inception.
We encourage you to reach out to Marek Iwahashi, Head of Investor Relations, via email at [email protected] or by phone at (720) 323-2995 if you are interested in getting positioned in our funds for the current monthly window.
Sincerely,
Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Founding Member & Chief Investment Officer
Tavi Costa
Member & Macro Strategist
Quinton T. Hennigh, PhD
Member & Geologic and Technical Advisor
For more information, including how to invest, please contact:
Marek Iwahashi
Head of Investor Relations
(720) 323-2995
Linda Carleu Smith, CPA
Co-Founding Member & Chief Operating Officer
(303) 228-7371
© 2025 Crescat Capital LLC
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