Black Bear Value Fund Q3 2025 Commentary

Black Bear Value Fund commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025.

“May all your delulu come trululu.” - Gen-Alpha

To My Partners and Friends:

• Black Bear Value Fund, LP (the “Fund”) returned -7.1% in September, -1.0% in the quarter and -12.7% year-to-date.
• The S&P 500 returned +3.6% in September, +8.1% in the quarter and +14.8% year-to-date.
• The HFRI Index returned +1.3% in September, +5.9% in the quarter and +13.7% year-to-date.
• We do not seek to mimic the returns of the S&P 500 and there will be variances in our performance.

One of the distinct advantages of private market investment is the lack of short-term noise and potential distraction from the price action in the market. We own businesses with prospects that are underappreciated often needing to “prove it” before given a fair price. In the meantime, negativity and misunderstanding exist and the stock is marked to the lowest clearing price to sell a share. Being able to look through this noise is an advantage over a decent time horizon. However, the ride can sometimes be turbulent and uncomfortable as it is today. I endeavor to have a private investing mindset and while cognizant of the market prices, they do not guide my decision making. Nearly all our long investments have the feature of being in industries that are currently bumping along the bottom. Homebuilding, chemical production, met coal etc. are all in a very weak state but have long-term tailwinds at their back. We own them with lots of pessimism baked in and a lot of upside when things eventually rebound. Note almost all our portfolio is NOT in the S&P 500 and a good chunk is in Ex. U.S. markets.