Hot Debate: Steben Says A Managed Futures Investment Can Be Timed

As he looks at the investing landscape, with historic low stock market volatility amidst a generally uncertain geopolitical environment, John Dolfin, chief investment officer at fund of funds manager Steben & Company, shakes his head. The “consensus” of opinion among major institutional players has always been an investment in managed futures cannot be timed. Dolfin, pointing to statistics, sharply disagrees. In a white paper out this September, Dolfin and Christopher Maxey, a senior portfolio manager for the managed futures allocator, point to research that outlines the cyclicality of market trends and trend exhaustion.

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As managed futures has muddled along from much of the decade – the only positive...