Citigroup: Value Investors Should Be Picking Countries, Not Sectors

The consensus has earnings per share (EPS) growing by 11 percent for 2013, but according to a Citi equity strategy report, that number is far too high, just like it was this time last year and this time in 2011. There’s a strong seasonality to EPS projections, and analysts almost always end up downgrading companies during the second half. The trick is to figure out which stocks already have the looming downgrade priced in, and according to Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C)’s report the best way to do that is by picking countries instead of specific sectors.

Citigroup's EPS forecast

For whatever reason, analysts have developed a habit of raising their EPS targets during the first half of the...