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CAPE® Ratio for Value Investing U.S. Sectors

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Jacob Wolinsky
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Slide deck for DoubleLine Fund's webcast, "DoubleLine's 4Cs" hosted by Deputy CIO and Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Sherman, and Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry.

Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

TAB I - DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE®

DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE® Structure

  • The distinct structure of the DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE® Strategy allows investors to simultaneously access returns of the equity markets and fixed income markets By using an equity index swap, 1 invested in the strategy provides approximately 1 of exposure to each market

DoubleLine

* A portion of the Initial Investment may be pledged as collateral under the swap

** Market fluctuations may preclude full $1 for $1 exposure between the swaps and the fixed income portfolio

Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Index - Sector Selection Rules

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Source: DoubleLine, Barclays

CAPE = Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Shiller

Barclays CAPE U S Sector Index Shiller Barclays CAPE US Sector TR USD Index incorporates the principles of long term investing distilled by Dr Robert Shiller and expressed through the CAPE® (Cyclically Adjusted
Price Earnings) ratio (the “CAPE® Ratio”) It aims to identify undervalued sectors based on a modified CAPE® Ratio, and then uses a momentum factor to seek to mitigate the effects of potential value traps You cannot invest directly in an index

Relative CAPE® Ratio for Value Investing U.S. Sectors

The Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Index uses the Relative CAPE® Ratio to select the most undervalued sectors in the market

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Source: Barclays, DoubleLine

In the chart, the vertical axis represents the Relative CAPE® Ratio. For definitions, please see the Appendix section of this presentation . For illustrative purposes

Historical Sector Rotation of Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Total Return Index

Portfolio weights are reconstituted on a monthly basis using the Relative CAPE® Ratio

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Source: Barclays, DoubleLine.

Shiller Barclays CAPE ®US Sector TR USD Index incorporates the principles of long term investing distilled by Dr. Robert Shiller and expressed through the CAPE® (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) ratio (the “CAPE® Ratio”). It aims to identify undervalued sectors based on a modified CAPE® Ratio, and then uses a momentum factor to seek to mitigate the effects of potential value traps. You cannot invest directly in an index. Please see the Appendix for index definitions

Performance of Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Total Return Index

October 31, 2013 September 30, 2019

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Source: Barclays, DoubleLine, Bloomberg

Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

Please see the Appendix for definitions.

See the full slides below.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the ex-Founder of Valuewalk.com (founded 2011, sold 2023). He is founder of HedgeFundAlpha (formerly ValueWalk Premium), a hedge fund focused intelligence service for institutional investors. Prior to founding Valuewalk, Jacob covered small caps, worked recruiting members for a large hedge fund community and freelance financial journalism. Jacob lives with his wife and five kids in Passaic Park NJ. - Email: jacob(at)hedgefundalpha.com. For confidential inquires email me for my Signal ID. Other methods of secure communication are also available. FD: Most of my portfolio is in I mostly purchase broad-based ETFs, mutual funds or individual bonds - I do this for performance reasons and to avoid any potential conflict of interest or occasional receipt of insider information. I will disclose if I have a stake in any company, but in general I have few stocks and I avoid any trading especially around topics I am covering.