Howard Marks: Why Follow Macro Forecasters Who Don’t Disclose Their Track Records?

HFA Padded
The Acquirer's Multiple
Published on
Cubic Corporation Chris Hohn favorite hedge funds

In his latest memo titled – Thinking About Macro, Howard Marks provides his thoughts on macro-investing, inflation, the Fed, and gold. On the subject of macro forecasters he says:

Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Cubic Corporation Chris Hohn favorite hedge funds

That brings me to the subject of forecasters’ track records, or rather the lack thereof. Back in the 1970s, an elder told me, an economist is a portfolio manager who never marks to market,” and that description still seems highly appropriate. Have you ever heard an economist or macro strategist say, “I think there’ll be a recession soon (and xx% of my recession predictions have turned out to be right within a year)”?

Would anyone invest with an investment manager who didn’t publish a track record? Why follow macro forecasters who don’t disclose theirs?

Finally, I want to point out that the same comments apply to most investors. You rarely hear them say they have no idea what the macro future holds or beg off from expressing opinions. One of the most important requirements for success in investing is self-assessment. What are your strengths and weaknesses? If you invest on the basis of your macro views, how often have they helped? Is it something you should keep doing or discontinue?

You can read the entire memo here:

Howard Marks: Thinking About Macro

For all the latest news and podcasts, join our free newsletter here.

FREE Stock Screener

Article by The Acquirer’s Multiple

HFA Padded

Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the founder of Acquirers Funds®. The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.